On June 23rd, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, commander of Wagner Group, issued an unprecedented statement denouncing the publicly stated causes of the War in Ukraine. He refuted Russian accusations of neo-Nazism and bombing of Donetsk, instead laying blame on the Russian siloviki. He absolved Putin of blame, but aimed at his inner circle, specifically, the Russian Ministry of Defense—Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. Particularly the former, in command of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, Prigozhin accused of issuing a missile strike against the Wagner Group. The validity of this claim is disputed. According to Prigozhin, Sergei Shoigu visited the city of Rostov-on-Don to issue orders for the liquidation of the Wagner Group using aviation. It is also reported by Prigozhin that Shoigu fled Rostov-on-Don following the release of Prigozhin’s initial statements—the validity of this claim is also disputed.
Prigozhin shortly afterwards issued a declaration of war against the Russian Ministry of Defense, the beginnings of an internal coup which he characterized as a “march of justice”. TASS media characterized the coup as a “armed mutiny”, and reported that Putin was aware of the situation. Moscovian Special Forces units split to lock down Moscow and reinforce Belgorod. The FSB opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, who faces from 10-20 years in prison—of course, he will likely be shot instead.
With Moscow and Rostov-on-Don under ‘fortress’ doctrine, both cities were allegedly prepared for assault. Troops in Moscow arrived in the Red Square, while forces in Rostov began combing down the M-4 highway. MiG-31s took off to resume the daily bombardment of Ukraine. Citizens were seen fleeing the Russian Ministry of Defense headquarters, as the building was promptly locked down.
A 50km column of Wagner Group forces was reported marching out of Ukraine from the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic. No footage of this column was seen until morning, when it was revealed that the Wagner Group had, with minimal skirmishes and the claimed destruction of 2 Mi-8 helicopters, taken the city of Rostov-on-Don. Presumably, this verifies the departure of Shoigu from the city, with an Mi-6 being seen evacuating during the morning.
International reactions have been ones of closely monitoring the situation, though the Russian Volunteer Corps, known as the RDK, have agreed to join forces with the Wagner Group. Though they number around 150-200, they can project power into Belgorod. Their current affiliations with Ukraine as of agreeing to work with Prigozhin are unknown. The Freedom for Russia Legion did not reciprocate.
There were no reported clashes at the Wagner Group headquarters in St. Petersburg, but Wagner Group forces were reported in the city of Bataysk, indicating that the Wagner Group may be forming a frontline. The status of Ramzan Kadyrov is presently unknown, but will likely be a deciding factor in the near future. Generals Sergey Surovikin and Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev, former allies of Prigozhin, made clear their allegiances to the Russian MoD—in response, the Wagner Group issued statements indicating that both and all generals siding with the MoD would be tried and summarily executed for their failures in Ukraine.
Russian forces in Ukraine are apparently confused, and Ukrainian forces have begun a subsequent counterattack. The Donetsk People’s Republic has been locked out of Rostov.
There is an active media blackout against Wagner Group’s publications on Russian social media. With Prigozhin as of the time of writing controlling the 11th largest city in Russia, a potential alliance with Kadyrov and a substantial movement from the RDK could see the beginnings of a ultranationalist faction forming a proper frontline.
Putin has not made public comments on the developing situation. Presently, Prigozhin’s last known location is the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.
Projections
The success of the Wagner Group has already been astronomical, but will be constrained by time. Already, many possible allies of Prigozhin have sworn their public allegiance to the Ministry of Defense, but the warlord has publicly declared his intentions to fight to the death. Though no such mortal struggle has begun, it should be noted that the Wagner Group forces are amongst the most elite and well-prepared in and around the Russian Federation. Photos of the Wagner Group column have indicated a attention to detail on supplies, and the seizure of Rostov-on-Don indicates the readiness for a long-term campaign. However, time is not to the advantage of either the ultranationalists or the Russian Federation, but the Ukrainians.
Rostov-on-Don is the supply depot for the entirety of the Russian Armed Forces in Southern Ukraine, which are currently buckling under the weight of a mounting counteroffensive. Though the Ukrainian counteroffensive has encountered undeniable difficulties, the seizure of Rostov-on-Don, presumably to supply Wagner’s coup with weapons, spells doom for Russian forces in Ukraine. Shoigu must now determine a path with which to dislodge Wagner forces from Rostov-on-Don without the use of forces in Ukraine, forces which cannot be drawn from the frontlines in the midst of the Ukrainian counterattack.
Shoigu can also not use aviation to bomb Rostov, as not only being a major urban population center, is once again, the supply depot for all of occupied Southern Ukraine. Therefore, the future of the Russian Federation may very well be determined in the next ten days—the amount of time with which the Russian forces in occupied Ukraine are purportedly supplied to. If, using the military assets inside of the Russian Federation, Shoigu cannot dislodge Wagner forces from Rostov-on-Don, Ukraine will win the war.
Shoigu also has a second time limit—if Putin decides that siding with Prigozhin is preferable to losing the War in Ukraine, he may choose to side with Prigozhin to resume the flow of supplies to occupied Ukraine. He may highlight the ease in which the federal forces were overrun as a means to mobilize the country for war. Ultranationalist factions in control of Russia may go down a more violent, escalatory path in Ukraine. However, Prigozhin’s recent anti-war tirade indicates that if given a larger role in the Ukraine War, he may attempt to pull out of it.
As such, depending on whether Shoigu can defeat Prigozhin’s forces in the next three-five days, the War in Ukraine has just been won. Ukrainian forces, if able to take advantage of the chaos, could reverse the fortunes of their present counteroffensive and overrun the occupied territories. Should they manage to take parts of Zaporizhzhya, they are likely to consolidate their regained territories and push properly into Donetsk/Luhansk or Crimea. The utter failure of the Russian Armed Forces in not only invading their neighbor but defeating a warlord with a malnourished army of around 25,000 forces highlights their utter inability to secure their own borders, much less push past them.
World Affairs International 