Estonia and Finland have discussed moves to close the Baltic Sea to the Russian navy. The move is the latest escalation near to ongoing tensions in Kaliningrad, which flared after Lithuania’s insistence on maintaining the EU’s sanctions on the exclave.
Finland’s entry into the NATO alliance could force Russia to re-evaluate its naval staging grounds, particularly in regard to the Arctic Sea. As Ukraine begins to threaten Crimea with a possible offensive, Russia stands at risk of losing two major waterways, a scenario that would spell catastrophe for Russian power projection in Europe.
Russia is likely to make serious threats of escalation in regards to a possible closing of the Baltic Sea, particularly if the Black Sea becomes untenable in the wake of a Ukrainian offensive. As opposed to Kaliningrad, there is a larger risk of a potential confrontation given Russia’s naval assets already in the region. Should the West manage to excise Russia from both seas successfully, the move would likely contribute to Russia’s potential eastward shift, putting the Russian navy into a more serious role in the Pacific.
World Affairs International 