Russo-Ukrainian War 10/7/22

At the time of the incident, a large explosion was recorded on the bridge, indicating a potential Ukrainian attack. Though Russia initially claimed that traffic had been halted due to an ongoing fire on a rail car, they now claim a truck bomb exploded on the bridge.

The timing of the incident, a few hours after Putin’s 70th birthday, indicates that Ukraine may have carried out the highly anticipated attack. No decisive statements have been given regarding the explosion, though there is speculation as to a long-range missile strike or an SoF attack.

Should the bridge remain inoperable, Crimea will be extremely vulnerable to the ongoing counteroffensive in Kherson. Should Ukrainian forces choose to start an offensive into occupied Zaporizhzhia, Crimea would be completely isolated. Currently, Russian occupation authorities are launching a ferry service for the strait.

After Biden’s public comments about the risk of armageddon being ‘higher than ever,’ the explosion draws into question just how severe Putin’s response might be. During previous escalations, Putin has chosen to bomb Kyiv and western Ukrainian cities, keeping the Ukrainian populace away from the frontlines on edge. But the destruction of the sole ‘safe’ link to Crimea amidst ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives may solicit a more serious response.

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