World Affairs International

Russia has begun a partial mobilization while announcing referendums across occupied Ukraine in a large-scale escalation set on prolonging the war.

Western governments warned of Russia’s impending decision throughout the evening, as Ukraine indicated it was wary of potential large-scale escalations.

News of the mobilization caused the Russian stock market to plummet, even as protests erupted across major Russian cities, reminiscent of the start of the war.

Western intelligence and military analysts from both Ukrainian and Russian perspectives have offered doubt that Russia’s mobilization will work, given the insubstantial amount of time left for Russia to extract any modicum of victory in Ukraine. With Russian forces on the retreat, Putin will be forced to send conscripts with little training into the battlefield or risk a long mobilization that places troops far too late on the battlefield. Given the performance of the Russian army proper, it is unlikely that giving conscripts sufficient training will be a game-changer for the war in Ukraine.

Still, the mobilization has the effect of prolonging the war, as the coming winter positions both nations to use diplomatic pressure while awaiting a likely Ukrainian spring offensive.