Russo-Ukrainian War 7/30/22

Russian state media has claimed a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea. The attack was allegedly conducted using Ukrainian UAVs, and Russia has currently claimed five wounded.

Due to the distance, there is a possibility that the strike was caused by Ukrainian operators or local partisans, which according to some independent sources, have been making an unexpected resurgence in the long-occupied peninsula.

Ukraine’s fleet of TB2s, though successful in the initial war, has met increasing challenges as Russia begins a combined arms approach to fighting in the Donbas. As such, air defense vulnerabilities have been harder to exploit. Though TB2 strikes have continued in certain areas, they have seen less usage than HIMARS and other long-range rocket artillery. A penetrative strike deep into Russian-occupied territory, in areas that Russia has controlled for the past eight years, indicates a serious failure of Russia’s capabilities in regards to national defense.

Russia has so far claimed the drone was a homemade UAV. Though this lends credibility to the difficulties in striking Sevastopol with TB2s, it raises the possibility of Ukrainian special forces or partisan activity in the region.

The attack on Crimea, which Russia and its proxies consider to be an integral part of the Russian Federation, will likely be the first warning for Russia to immediately take to the negotiating table with credible proposals, as Ukraine is evidently fully considering an attack on the peninsula after the liberation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

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