Russia is likely attempting to fortify positions in southern Ukraine as ongoing materiel donations continue to bolster Ukraine’s military.
Ukraine has recently been promised more shells and rocket artillery, alongside infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, and potentially planes. Though Germany has delayed the donation of some air defenses, it has also reportedly handed over rocket launchers and self-propelled artillery.
As for Russia, no serious elements remain for deployment to change the fate of the war. The U.S. has not seen evidence that Iran has transferred drones to Russia. On the contrary, rather than continually modernizing its equipment like Ukraine, Russia is repeatedly relying on older generation equipment, often to supplement losses elsewhere.
This trend represents the increasing reality that Putin will need to rely on energy and migrant pressure to push for a settlement over Ukraine. As Russian forces in the Donbas continue to be momentarily repulsed, the Russian advance will likely continue to remain halted without making significant advances barring a serious change in strategy or escalation.
World Affairs International 