Russo-Ukrainian War 7/22/22

The United States has continued to supply Ukraine with artillery shells, providing 36,000 in the most recent tranch of materiel support worth $270m.

Despite these announcements, the United States has clarified that donations of Western aviation to Ukraine will likely be part of a long-term effort to modernize Ukraine’s army rather than an immediate transfer. Though this statement alludes to the West’s growing confidence in Ukraine’s victory, it shies away from providing materiel for use in the current phase of the war, although previously donated materiel like HIMARS and M777 Howitzers faced the same scrutiny before being transferred.

Outside of Ukraine, Russian proxies in Transnistria have made public statements indicating a wish to join Russia. Such a movie is likely a pipedream, as though Russia has updated its slated goals to take southern Ukraine, such an offensive is increasingly assessed as unlikely in the face of Ukraine’s defenses and the port city of Odesa. Moldovan authorities have once again demanded the withdrawal of Russian forces from the region, a vast majority of which garrison one of the largest ammunition depots in the world-a Cold War era Soviet munitions storage.

Ukrainian media has reported the country’s willingness to support the ‘de-occupation’ of Transnistria. The exact details are unclear, but the Head of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence made the statements shortly after the separatists clarified their intentions on unification with Russia. A joint Moldovan-Ukrainian invasion would likely dislodge the separatist forces in the area, though due to the volatility of the ammunition depot there, serious concerns exist over the possibility of an explosion comparable in size to the atomic bombs dropped on Japan.

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