Russo-Ukrainian War 7/21/22

Western intelligence agencies have increasingly assessed Russia’s inability to achieve its war goals, stated or actual. The assessment has come at a turning point in the war against Russia, as Western heavy weapons batter Russian lines, turning Russia’s ‘operational pause’ into a series of repeated delays that will likely provide Ukraine an opportunity to counterattack.

Along with growing optimism has come more materiel considerations. Most recently, the United States has considered providing A-10 Warthogs to Ukraine, sources say. The A-10, a relic from the Cold War, was intended to tear through Soviet tank divisions in a likely escalation between East and West Germany. Meant to be comparatively disposable, the A-10 has remained in use by American forces as a close air support aircraft, operating after the complete destruction of enemy air defenses by the U.S.’ more modern aviation. Yet, the A-10’s seemingly obsolescence came into question following Russia’s serious failures at the start of the war, as massive, several-dozen kilometer-long tank lines with minimal air defenses remained stalled outside Kyiv. Though Russia has adapted and fixed many of its more severe logistical problems (partially due to the ease of fighting in the Donbas compared to deep attacks into Ukraine’s heartlands), the presence of HIMARS disrupting Russia’s logistics and command has given Ukrainian aviation new opportunities to pursue targets under Russian-occupied airspace. Especially if supported by F-15s and F-16s, which the U.S. has also considered, the A-10 could be a significant boost to Ukraine’s air support capabilities.

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