World Affairs International

The United Kingdom signed a mutual defense pact with Sweden and Finland, guaranteeing the security of both nations hours ahead of what will likely be Finland’s announcement on NATO membership.

The former Prime Minister of Finland, Alexander Stubb, claimed with ‘99.9% certainty’ that Finland would join the transatlantic alliance. Sweden, working in lockstep with Finland, is likely to mirror Finland’s decision.

The immediate effects of NATO accession would be a new 830-mile NATO border on Russia’s doorstep, a nightmare for Putin’s intimidation and buffer-state creation strategy. Russian troops will likely mass upon the Finnish border, with Finnish (and subsequently, NATO) troops likely doing the same. Still, security guarantees from the United Kingdom and the United States, which have promised aid to both Sweden and Finland ahead of NATO accession, will deter a Russian provocation.

Nevertheless, Russia could still make dangerous airspace violations and false-flag incidents, and nuclear threats meant to destabilize Finland. Like most incidents, Finland will likely ignore them as another recurring case of Russian inanity.

Near Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops have allegedly reached the Russian border, briefly crossing it in a symbolic statement of victory. If able to finish off Russian forces in Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces could then counterattack Izyum, gutting the numerous Russian offensives from the occupied city and weakening Russia’s line of control across all the Donbas.