Russo-Ukrainian War 4/26/22

A Transnistria soldier in 2013. (Image via Clay Gilliland)

Russia allegedly placed Transnistrian forces on high alert after citing ‘terror attacks’ in the region. It is widely believed that attacks on Transnistrian territory, occurring in a multitude of locations, have been Russian provocations to force Transnistrian rebels into the war.

Despite worries about involving Moldova in the war, an offensive out of Transnistria wouldn’t work as Putin might imagine. With a long border and Ukrainian forces from Odesa nearby, any Transnistrian actions would be repelled rather quickly. Russia would stand to lose control of its bargaining chip over Moldova and lose access to its massive ammo depot, which ‘peacekeeping’ forces have been guarding for decades.

Yet despite the sheer irrationality of a Transnistrian offensive, the same could’ve been said of an attack on Ukraine, which Russia pursued nonetheless. Constant unsupported VDV air assaults over Hostomel, staging out of a repeatedly shelled airport in Kherson, and digging fortifications in radioactive Chornobyl are just a few of Russia’s seemingly incomprehensible ‘strategies’ that make a Transnistrian offensive unviable but possible.

Further East, the Russian armored offensive towards Zaporizhzhia has continued. Russian forces also saw gains near Kramatorsk, though ongoing Ukrainian resistance continues to deplete Russia’s materiel reserves.

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