World Affairs International

Amidst Russian claims of attacks on Western officials and diplomats by Ukraine, Belarus began pulling its representatives from the country, in what many see as the precursor to a full-scale Belarusian invasion. Troops in Belarus have been given red armbands and markings, and more and more material has been moved towards the border.

Yet while Lukashenko may have been pressured into joining the war by Putin, his people certainly don’t feel the same way. Belarusian rail operators disrupted trains running between Belarus and Ukraine, cutting parts of Russia’s supply train and further hampering the war effort.

Lukashenko nimbly held on to power following the extensive 2020 Belarusian protests, which saw the use of widespread intimidation and brutality to curb the potential coup. Now, Belarus’ 48,000 man army, mostly of conscripts, faces a test; to stand with Putin’s nigh annexation of Belarus’ foreign policy and domestic affairs, or to resign as many have, and even help counter Lukashenko’s influence.

Meanwhile, Russia has begun deploying more lethal technology and has reported the first-ever use of a hypersonic missile. The munitions were used to destroy a bunkered ammo depot in Western Ukraine, and such attacks using the more destructive and modern edge of Russia’s arsenal are likely to continue.