World Affairs International

According to U.S. intelligence, an estimated 7,000 Russian troops have died since the onset of the Russian invasion. Russia’s losses so far will be impossible to replace in short order due to the disproportionate amount of special forces and modern equipment lost. Given the performance of these forces and equipment, it would arguably be more strategic to recruit conscripts en masse, given they would seemingly fall just as fast. No army can project global firepower without combat training, operational security, and a well-defended and consistent supply chain.

No significant advances have been made recently, with cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol continuing to hold out. Russia has continued to face devastating helicopter losses, particularly in the Kherson area.

Russia’s reliance on highways has changed the dynamic of Eastern European warfare, with territories that were historically seen as easy to conquer (the flatlands of Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics) suddenly becoming increasingly defensible and resistant against potential invasion.

Oddly, a series of powerful explosions were reported in Belarus in the early evening hours. Though later downplayed, the reports came from opposition leaders and military commanders, and many wondered if they had been the opening stages of a coup against Lukashenko. Exact details remain unknown, but it is possible it could have also been a Russian false-flag operation to force Belarus into the war. It could even have been a Russian-backed coup to bring the nation more tightly under its control.

Despite popular belief, Minsk has not always been a stalwart ally of Moscow. Similar to Putin’s problems with Xi, Lukashenko has been reticent and, at times, hostile towards the Russian imperial agenda. Perhaps this is shown in Belarus’ own reticence to fully commit forces, which has led to a ramping of efforts by Russia to pressure the nation using false-flag attempts.

Perhaps it is Lukashenko’s own madness, knowing he said “We are not Russian — we are Belarusians,” in an anti-Russian speech in 2014, only to joyfully accept a military position in the Russian army with Putin’s promise of victory in Ukraine. But for all intents and purposes, NATO must be prepared to support the Belarusian people, who can be far more readily supported and incentivized than the Russian populace. A coup in Belarus would be a domino effect, one that Putin has done all he can to avoid, with his forces invading Kazakhstan to end unrest there. Ideas catch fire, and any push for democracy on its borders will soon spread to Russia’s people, ending Putin’s era of imperialism.