World Affairs International

In 1939, disguised Germans perpetrated the Gleiwitz incident, a purported attack on German soil that served as a pretext for the German invasion of Poland.

Of course, the event was widely derided as a ploy to contemporary and modern historians. It was absurd to consider that Germany was anything but the aggressor, and the Gleiwitz event was used primarily for national propaganda.

Yet, for a nation like Russia, whose populace continues to seek greater representation and economic conditions, a Gleiwitz incident may be crucial in allowing for an invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, as it stands, cannot survive a war with Ukraine. This is primarily due to international pressure; Russia will face extreme economic collapse if the West responds as Biden has promised. Yet Russia could theoretically commit to a sustained attack or invasion in Ukraine if morale at home was sufficient to ride the wave of discontent with sanctions.

Hence Russia saw fit to send operatives into Ukraine, according to the U.S.

As part of its plans, Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion — and we’ve seen this before; we saw this before leading up 2014, just to note — including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine. And the Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February.

Press Secretary Jen Psaki via January 14th, 2021 Press Briefing

Russia is currently involved in both Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the latter being an unexpected distraction, which so far has not seemingly impeded efforts in Ukraine. Recently, a counter-coup by former President Nursultan Nazarbayev tried to curb acting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s sudden and deep purging of the Kazakh government. This counter-coup was defeated by Russian intervention, and hence Putin has secured the loyalty of Kazakhstan’s government. Yet Kazakhstan’s woes continue to spell Russia’s own future, with worries about the inevitable transfer of power and the long-term effects of a cult of personality becoming prevalent.

Additionally, Russia stands accused of belligerent activities in the north, with a Russian cargo plane violating Finland’s military airspace. The plane allegedly passed over Finland’s Air Force headquarters and a military intelligence unit.

According to Finland’s air force, though the flight was an approved civilian flight, the detour over Finland, on a flight bound from Moscow to Leipzig, nevertheless bears some form of diplomatic blowback.

If anything, Russia’s actions seem to test the West’s patience, with NATO growing increasingly wary of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. With Russia locked against three geopolitical fronts (Ukraine, a volatile Central Asia, and rising tensions in the Baltics), it will struggle to hold its own in the event of a full-scale war with Ukraine.

Even if Russia manages to fully subjugate the nation in a mixture of rapid, overwhelming force, the Biden administration has warned Putin that they would arm and train a Ukrainian insurgency to free the country. Given the U.S.’ particular experience with creating and fighting insurgencies, a Ukrainian insurgency motivated by the loss of their land and supplied by American material would be catastrophic. It would be so grave a threat to Russian national security that Putin’s government would need to resort to drastic measures, of which the majority would lead to international outrage.